Some apartment markets are more difficult to predict than others in the United States, offering a wider range of possible performance outcomes than others that tend to fit into a neat category of market profiles. RealPage identified five such markets to watch over the coming year.
In New York, it is difficult to pinpoint how much of an impact supply has in certain neighborhoods, and peak supply isn’t expected to arrive in the city until early 2026 when 32,000 units are planned for delivery. This is a considerable increase from 2024 supply levels of about 19,000 units, RealPage said. Occupancy in the Big Apple has improved to 97% from its low point in the early 2020s cycle, suggesting rent growth could be similar to other gateway market peers during the coming months. However, RealPage said a wide range of performance outcomes are possible in New York this year.
Meanwhile, Denver saw rents drop roughly 3.5% to end 2024, which represents one of the deepest cuts among the top 50 US markets. The city’s supply peak remains a few months away, but when it arrives, it is expected to add about 6.5% of existing inventory. Whether demand may be improving is unknown, but annual job growth of nearly 1% in December, the strongest performance since October 2023, could be a positive indicator.
Jacksonville also experienced deep rent cuts – approaching 6% year-over-year during the summer of 2024. However, the market has shown recent signs of stabilization and could begin to work its way up the performance list in 2025, said RealPage. Occupancy has been persistently low in the market – below 94% – which will remain a challenge even as predicted 3% inventory growth is well below peak inventory growth of 6.5% in the third quarter.
Columbus, Ohio, is a growing investor hotspot in the traditionally quiet Midwest region, but a recent surge in investment has brought a new wave of supply. The market is expected to increase its existing supply base by nearly 4% this year, or 8,200 units.
“Though that’s not a huge ratio relative to some Sun Belt markets, it will be enough to test the depth of demand in the near term,” said RealPage. “Further, Columbus’ peak supply (in late 2025) is among the nation’s latest peak periods. It may be worth monitoring rent growth in the next few months here relative to supply levels.”
Finally, Nashville has experienced massive supply growth on par with markets like Austin, Charlotte and Phoenix. But the city’s supply peaked at the end of last year at 13,000 units or 7% inventory growth, largely concentrated in the urban core. This could result in a slow-to-recover urban core and a faster-than-expected suburban rebound where supply levels drop sharply in 2025, RealPage said.