Despite robust construction activity, homes remain in short supply across the country. With demand for housing continuing to remain high, CoreLogic wanted to know which metropolitan statistical areas are poised for development.
The firm found the majority of fastest-growing markets are in the South, with all but four of the top 20 metro areas located in Texas, Florida, the Carolinas or Tennessee. The top 10 markets on CoreLogic’s list are Lakeland, Florida; Austin, Texas; Raleigh, North Carolina; Dallas; Port St. Lucie, Florida; San Antonio; Wilmington, North Carolina; Cape Coral, Florida; Boise City, Idaho; and Las Vegas.
The analysis is based on several factors including the share of new construction properties built and sold, land-use designation changes, builder and or developer ownership, and new construction permitting. The first two correlate with recent growth and the remaining three factors point to future development potential.
Other MSAs that may be primed for growth include Albuquerque and Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, each with recent land-use changes. While property developments have yet to follow in these markets, there are indications that development is on the horizon, said CoreLogic.
Meanwhile, the slowest-growing metros were less concentrated in particular regions. Among them are five MSAs each in the Midwest and California and 10 in the Northeast.
The Los Angeles area, including both Oxnard and Los Angeles proper, is growing at the slowest pace, according to CoreLogic’s analysis. The firm attributed this to a very low number of properties with a change in land-use designations likely due to stringent local regulations and its proximity to the Riverside MSA, which has absorbed much of the growth in the region.
Other slow-growing markets include New York, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, New York; Hartford, New Haven and Bridgeport, Connecticut; and San Jose and San Francissco, California.
There are some outliers, noted CoreLogic. Notably, Miami has a low score based on growth indicators but has significant population growth.
“Therefore, Miami could be characterized as a city that is revitalizing rather than expanding,” said CoreLogic. “The fact that Miami is growing in this fashion is not particularly surprising. Since Miami was one of the most overbuilt areas of the country in the lead up to the financial crisis of the 2000s, it still has many vacant homes. As a result, there is less need to build for an increasing population than in other MSAs.”