Placer.ai, which uses cell phone data to analyze foot traffic down to a property level — regularly examines different questions about CRE markets. Like consumers turning to convenience stores while personal income sees tepid growth or increased office visits not making up for high vacancy rates.
In a new report from the software firm, some metro areas saw positive net migration. The metro areas in question had populations ranging from 500,000 to 2.5 million. They had positive net migration from July 2020 to July 2024 and include Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX (3.6%); Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%); Raleigh-Cary, NC (2.6%); Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%); Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%); and Madison, WI (0.6%).
All five saw more people moving into them than moving out over the past four years, with the positive net migration continuing over the past 12 months.
But the interesting point was that the incoming populations came from core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) that had younger and less affluent residents.
Raleigh had a median household income (MHI) of $84,000. The people moving there came from CBSAs with a median HHI of $66,900. Austin had an MHI of $85,400 and the new residents came from areas with incomes of $69,900. Des Moines had an MHI of $75,100 and the people moving there left areas with $58,100. For Madison, the MHI was $77,500, while the source locations were at $62,600. The last of the five was Fayetteville with an MHI of $66,600 and the origination locations had an MHI of $57,500.
Similarly, the incoming people came from populations with lower median age than the places they moved to. Des Moines' was at 36.4, although the median age of incoming residents was 34.8. Austin's was 35.3 and the new residents, 34.9. For Raleigh, the existing age was 37.2, and the incoming age, was 37.2, making the only example where the ages were the same. Oklahoma City had 35.7 and saw an incoming 34.5. Madison's median age was 36.5 and the new residents were 36.0. Finally, Fayetteville residents were at a median of 34.4, with newcomers being 33.9.
According to Placer.ai, the major drivers were affordable housing and career opportunities. The destination metros all had better jobs and housing grades. That made them more appealing to those who moved there.