Older office stock is one of the biggest concerns in the U.S. commercial real estate market, as buildings built before 2015 have lost 250 million square feet of absorption since COVID-19. That's the equivalent of the size of Manhattan, said Warren Wachsberger of real estate investment management firm Eldridge Acre Partners during a segment on CNBC. Meanwhile, buildings built after 2015 have gained 140 million square feet of absorption during the time period.
"Newer buildings are doing well and are attracting tenants and can be in a position to benefit from the growth that's hopefully going on in the US," Wachsberger said. "The worry is obviously the older buildings that are stuck that we need to figure out what to do with."
Wachsberger also addressed the more than $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans coming due over the next couple of years and how the industry is preparing. The US is facing multiple challenges, including higher interest rates, diminished credit available and supply/demand imbalances, he said.
"When you put all those together, we're seeing some short term issues that we think create opportunities for longer term structural trends," Wachsberger said.
Particularly in the housing market, there are opportunities to invest in US commercial real estate, he said.
"From our perspective, values have probably bottomed and market sentiment hasn't caught up to it yet," said Wachsberger. Cap rates have increased fairly dramatically, up 200 to 300 basis points across multiple asset classes, he noted.
"What gives us confidence is that if you can enter into projects at a discount to where those values are at today, you can be in the position to extract alpha out of the market," said Wachsberger.